EQUATORIAL PACIFIC · UPDATED 05 AUG 2026

See the ocean signal
before it becomes the season.

Track the coupled Pacific in three dimensions. Compare what NOAA observes, what forecasters agree on, and what historical analogs suggest could come next.

Open the farm lens

ALERT STATE EL NIÑO ADVISORY

Strengthening through the end of 2026

01 / OCEAN STATE

Pacific field

SCHEMATIC VIEW · NOAA INDEX VALUES

OBSERVED JUL 2026

DRAG TO ROTATE −2°C / −3.6°F0+3°C / +5.4°F

NIÑO 3.4 +1.37°C / +2.47°F Relative monthly SST anomaly

Text alternative for the Pacific field

The visual shows a schematic Pacific basin. It places the selected Niño 3.4 anomaly in geographic context. It is not a measured gridded sea-surface-temperature map.

Tracked area: Equatorial Pacific, with focus on Niño 3.4
Time control: Monthly observations followed by an experimental analog median
Interaction: Use the timeline, zoom controls, keyboard arrow keys, or adjacent numeric readout

Observation → forecast

Data receipt · Pacific field. Observed numbers use NOAA CPC weekly and relative monthly indices. Forecast frames use the unvalidated analog median. The animated field is an explanatory schematic, not a gridded ocean analysis.

02 / COUPLING MONITOR

Four independent Pacific checks.

Use these checks to see if the ocean and atmosphere tell a consistent story. They do not predict local farm conditions.

CHECKING 4 SOURCES

Read each lane by itself. These measures use different data, periods, and units. Do not compare their numeric sizes.

RONI

Three-month relative Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly.

Official NOAA data ↗

Latest: —
Source period: —
Observed through: —
Status: CHECKING

View all plotted RONI values

Period	Observed through	Value

MEI.v2

Two-month coupled ocean-atmosphere index.

Official NOAA data ↗

Latest: —
Source period: —
Observed through: —
Status: CHECKING

View all plotted MEI.v2 values

Period	Observed through	Value

Upper 300 m temperature anomaly

Monthly equatorial average from 160°E to 80°W.

Official NOAA data ↗

Latest: —
Source period: —
Observed through: —
Status: CHECKING

View all plotted upper-ocean values

Period	Observed through	Value

Southern Oscillation Index

Monthly standardized Tahiti-minus-Darwin pressure index.

Official NOAA data ↗

Latest: —
Source period: —
Observed through: —
Status: CHECKING

View all plotted SOI values

Period	Observed through	Value

What to check next

RONI: Read the CPC expert ENSO outlook. MEI.v2 and SOI: Check if the ocean and atmosphere agree. Upper-ocean anomaly: Check if the subsurface signal continues at the next update. Then use CPC seasonal maps, local forecasts, soil data, crop stage, and water data.

Data receipt · The four source checks are loading. Each source keeps its own observation date and freshness state.

03 / TRAJECTORY

Official outlook. Model guidance. Lab comparison.

Keep each source in its proper role. CPC gives the official expert outlook. NMME gives model guidance. The FieldForge analog is an experiment.

North American Multi-Model Ensemble NOAA CPC-hosted raw model guidance · corrected plume available

VERIFIED GUIDANCE

VALID MONTH

NMME multi-model mean Individual model means Range of model means · not probability

Raw-guidance limit. These numeric values do not include the CPC plume amplitude correction. View the official corrected plume. This tropical Pacific guide does not forecast regional rain, heat, snow, water supply, crop loss, or yield.

Full NMME text table

Validated monthly raw NMME mean and model-mean spread in degrees Celsius.
Month	NMME mean · °C / °F	Model-mean range · °C / °F	Models

Model roster

Approved models in the current artifact.
Model	Center	Members

Source receipt and method limits

Sources: NOAA CPC NMME plume page · amplitude-correction method
Cycle: Unavailable
Models: Unavailable
Calibration: Unavailable
Artifact: Unavailable
Expiry: Numeric values hide when the artifact expires · no analog substitution

NOAA CPC consensus Official · issued July 2026

Probability by overlapping 3-month season. Strength does not guarantee local impacts.

Data receipt · Official chart. NOAA CPC consensus strength probabilities, issued July 2026. These are event-strength probabilities. They are not local rain, heat, crop-loss, or water-supply probabilities.

FieldForge experiment · analog ensemble Experimental · 12 unique, non-overlapping historical events

CURRENT EXPERIMENTAL MEDIAN PEAK · NOT VALIDATED +1.35°C / +2.43°F DEC 2026

Observed monthly relative Niño 3.4 · °C scale; readouts include °F FieldForge analog median + historical 20–80% outcome band · not calibrated El Niño reference

MODEL EVIDENCE SKILL NOT ESTABLISHED

The blocked hindcast evidence is loading. Use the CPC expert outlook for decisions.

See the balanced diagnostic by lead

Balanced retrospective relative Niño 3.4 diagnostic. Error is mean absolute error in °C with a 95% paired block-bootstrap interval. Lower error is better. The historical 20–80% band has nominal 60% coverage.
Lead	Analog error	Persistence	Calendar mean	Trend baseline	Band coverage	Starts

This test covers tropical relative Niño 3.4 only. It does not measure regional rain, heat, snow, water, yield, disease, loss, or farm decisions.

Data receipt · FieldForge experiment. This unvalidated historical comparison is not NMME and is not the CPC expert outlook. It does not create a regional or farm forecast.

04 / WESTERN FARM LENS

From Pacific signal to field decision.

Select a season and farming system. The western view distinguishes CPC’s current outlook from historical El Niño tendencies and translates each into planning watches—not guaranteed outcomes.

Pacific monitoring: Checking source coverage. Regional planning still uses CPC seasonal maps and local field data.

OFFICIAL NWS · 72-HOUR FIELD WINDOW

Check the next 72 hours at your field.

Enter a point in Washington, Oregon, California, or Arizona. FieldForge gets the official hourly forecast and active point alerts from the National Weather Service.

NWS source method (opens in a new tab)

FIELD POINT LATITUDE LONGITUDE

FieldForge sends this point to the same-origin weather route only after you select a button. It does not put the point in the URL or save it in this application.

YOUR OPTIONAL LIMITS INPUT UNITS MAX FORECAST WIND (mph) MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCE (%) MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURE (°F) MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURE (°F) MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%) MAX RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%)

Leave a limit blank if you do not want to check it. Forecast wind is sustained wind, not gust.

NWS FIELD WINDOW

72-hour forecast

Updated: Not available
Valid through: Not available
Field point: Not available
Units: US and metric

NWS point alerts

NWS alert timing

Each column is one six-hour forecast window. This view shows timing only.

Open alert timing table

Official NWS point alerts aligned with the 12 forecast windows.
Alert	NWS status	Starts	Ends	Affected windows

Matches your limits Outside your limits Limits not set Could not check all limits

Open the 72-hour detail table

Official NWS hourly forecast. All times use the forecast point time zone.
Time	Conditions	Temperature	Precipitation	Humidity	Forecast wind

FARM PLANNING WINDOW

Match your work dates to the reviewed outlook windows.

This tool finds every overlapping three-month window. It does not make a daily weather forecast.

REVIEWED WINDOW MATCH

Farm planning brief

SOURCE-SEPARATED VIEW

Evidence horizon for this work window

Each row keeps its own source, units, and valid time. The rows do not form a combined forecast.

Next 72 hours

Load an official field forecast above.

Current conditions through seasonal context

USDM, CPC, NMME, and Pacific monitoring remain separate.

Open the evidence table

Values, dates, source states, and units shown in the evidence horizon.
Source	Valid time	Source state	Value	Units and boundary

Field checks for this work window

Washington · ASO 2026 · official CPC precipitation area share

Below normal Equal chances / mixed Above normal

State outlines use 2025 U.S. Census cartographic boundaries. The official CPC polygons are summarized over FieldForge regions. California data regions use county unions. The visible California bands are a planning overview.

AREA 1 acre = 0.405 ha WATER DEPTH 1 in = 25.4 mm DISTANCE 1 mi = 1.61 km

WASHINGTON / ASO 2026

Washington

ELEVATED WATCH

Hotter and seasonally dry conditions keep irrigation demand high while drought persists into fall.

TEMPERATURE Above normal favored 50–60% probability

PRECIPITATION Below normal favored 33–40% probability

FIELDFORGE WATER WATCH Drought persistence Editorial / demand remains elevated

OFFICIAL NOAA CPC

Regional area share

SOURCE CHECK

Temperature Official regional shares are loading.

Precipitation Official regional shares are loading.

The regional result is a deterministic equal-area grid estimate. It is not a farm-level forecast.

OFFICIAL CURRENT CONDITIONS

Current drought conditions

AREA

A valid date is not available.

Current drought data is loading.

No D0-D4 category
D0 / Abnormally dry
D1 / Moderate drought
D2 / Severe drought
D3 / Extreme drought
D4 / Exceptional drought

D0 is not drought. No D0-D4 category does not mean that all farm conditions are normal.

View 12-week data

Weekly drought category area shares
Date	None	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D1-D4

This is a regional drought assessment. It is not a soil-moisture measurement. It does not show a water allocation. It does not change the FieldForge farm score.

Data receipt / Waiting for the official U.S. Drought Monitor artifact.

Farm watches · all farming

PLANNING WINDOW

OUTLOOK

Official seasonal tilt
Use with local forecasts, soil moisture, crop stage, and water allocations.

REGIONAL COMPARISON

Farm pressure matrix

ASO 2026

Swipe sideways to compare all regions.

Derived farm planning pressure by western region
Region	Heat load	Water deficit	Low snow / runoff	Excess water	Field access

LowWatchElevatedHigh

These values summarize the visible outlook. They are not probabilities or measured damage.

Data receipt · Pressure matrix. Derived 0–3 planning levels combine the visible seasonal outlook with hand-authored regional interpretation. They are not observed field conditions, modeled damage, or farm-specific advice.

SEASONAL INTERPRETATION

Washington pressure profile

DERIVED · 0–3

Heat load Water deficit Excess moisture

The profile uses the same derived planning levels as the matrix.

Data receipt · Seasonal profile. This view plots three derived matrix factors across four planning seasons. It does not show measured heat load, water deficit, or soil moisture.

NOW · ASOHeat + demandPNW drought persists; Southern California and Arizona have a wet tilt.

FALL · ONDPattern separatesNorthwest dries while Southern California storm odds begin to rise.

WINTER · DJFWater divergenceLower Northwest snowpack risk; strongest wet tendency shifts south.

SPRING · FMAField timingWatch carryover soil moisture, chill, disease, and planting access.

06 / DATA STATUS

Know what is fresh before you use it.

Each source family has its own issue time. A fresh observation does not make an older outlook or farm interpretation current.

Ocean observations: Snapshot · checking source time
ENSO discussion: Issued 09 Jul 2026
ENSO strength outlook: Issued Jul 2026
RONI: Checking source period
MEI.v2: Checking source period
Upper 300 m anomaly: Checking source period
SOI: Checking source period
CPC regional GIS: Source check in progress
Farm interpretation: Reviewed 05 Aug 2026
Analog model: Version 0.1 · experimental and unvalidated

07 / LIMITS

Use this to decide what to check next.

Pacific Signal is decision-support software under development. It does not replace official warnings, a local forecast, field measurements, or qualified farm advice.

Not a local weather forecast

ENSO changes seasonal odds across large areas. It does not give a rain amount, storm date, frost time, or field-level temperature.

Not a crop-loss model

Farm watches are hand-authored planning prompts. They do not measure damage, predict yield, or know crop stage, soil, irrigation, or pest pressure.

Not operational advice

Do not use this view by itself for planting, spraying, irrigation, insurance, water allocation, worker safety, or regulatory decisions.

Experimental model

The analog ensemble is educational and unvalidated. NOAA CPC consensus is the authoritative forecast shown here.

Before field action: check the National Weather Service, local extension guidance, soil and crop conditions, water allocations, product labels, and qualified advisers.

08 / PROVENANCE

See the ocean signal
before it becomes the season.

Pacific field

Four independent Pacific checks.

RONI

MEI.v2

Upper 300 m temperature anomaly

Southern Oscillation Index

What to check next

Official outlook. Model guidance. Lab comparison.

From Pacific signal to field decision.

Check the next 72 hours at your field.

72-hour forecast

Use this field for regional context?

NWS point alerts

NWS alert timing

Match your work dates to the reviewed outlook windows.

Farm planning brief

Evidence horizon for this work window

Next 72 hours

Current conditions through seasonal context

Field checks for this work window

Washington

Regional area share

Current drought conditions

Farm watches · all farming

Farm pressure matrix

Washington pressure profile

Stress-test the signal.

Know what is fresh before you use it.

Use this to decide what to check next.

Not a local weather forecast

Not a crop-loss model

Not operational advice

Experimental model

Built to show its work.

What this prototype predicts

See the ocean signalbefore it becomes the season.

Pacific field

Four independent Pacific checks.

RONI

MEI.v2

Upper 300 m temperature anomaly

Southern Oscillation Index

What to check next

Official outlook. Model guidance. Lab comparison.

From Pacific signal to field decision.

Use this field for regional context?

NWS point alerts

NWS alert timing

Match your work dates to the reviewed outlook windows.

Next 72 hours

Current conditions through seasonal context

Field checks for this work window

Washington

Regional area share

Farm watches · all farming

Farm pressure matrix

Washington pressure profile

Stress-test the signal.

Know what is fresh before you use it.

Use this to decide what to check next.

Not a local weather forecast

Not a crop-loss model

Not operational advice

Experimental model

Built to show its work.

See the ocean signal
before it becomes the season.